Ba dole ba ne kawai a cire kayan da aka saka ba, har ma da wayoyin hannu.
A cewar masanin binciken wayar salula Ming-Chi Kuo.Injin Androidsuna fuskantar haɗarin manyan kayayyaki, a cikin Xiaomi kimanin kwatankwacin ɓangarorin ɓangarorin wayar salula miliyan 20-30, mafi ƙarfi tari shine na'ura mai sarrafawa, wayoyin salula na Samsung da kayan kayan aikinsu, ana tsammanin za a iya ragewa a watan Yuni zuwa ruwa na yau da kullun. matakin.
A watan Mayun da ya gabata, masana'antar wayar salula ta kasar Sin ta girgiza kayayyaki miliyan 30 na wayoyin komai da ruwanka, da rugujewar da aka yi fiye da yadda ake tsammani, zuwa kashi uku cikin hudu, na'urorin kera sarkar wayoyin salula na Android na cikin gida tare da zobe na ci gaba da karuwa, hannun jari na Weir, Jusheng micro da fasahar Huideng, Kwanaki na jujjuya kayayyaki sun zarce matsakaicin matakin kusan shekaru uku, yayin da jigilar wayoyin komai da ruwanka a duniya baki daya a bara, ya fadi zuwa matsayi mafi karanci tun shekarar 2013.
Wayoyin hannu marasa ƙarfi na cikin gida da tsakiyar kewayon suna haifar da yaƙin farashin da ba a taɓa yin irinsa ba, samfuran manyan samfuran Apple suma raguwar farashi ba su da yawa, koma bayan al'amuran ƙirƙira wayar hannu sama da shekara guda, yadda ake haifar da girgiza cikin gida Sarkar masana'antar kayan aikin wayar hannu ta waje?Yaushe za a share kaya?Karanta wannan labarin kuma za ku koyi game da.
1. Xiaomi, halin da ake ciki na lissafin wayar salula na Samsung
2. yadda masu kera wayar salula ke yin kaya
3. Sabon aikin sarkar samar da wayar salula
01 Babban koma bayan Android
Buƙatun ƙasa da matsakaici shine mafi muni
Na'urorin Android suna fuskantar haɗarin manyan kayayyaki, kuma izinin ƙira akwai babban koma bayan tattalin arziki, saboda ƙarancin buƙatun sassa da abubuwan haɓaka samfuran samfuran ko masu rarrabawa / dillalai, masana sun yi imanin cewa watanni 6-9 na gaba har yanzu za su ga babban adadin. jigilar kayayyaki na raguwar girma a kowace shekara.
Kudaden kasuwancin wayar salula na Xiaomi ya ragu da kashi 11.1 cikin 100 duk shekara a kashi na uku na shekarar 2022, yayin da jigilar kayayyaki ta wayar salula ta ragu da kashi 8.4% a duk shekara zuwa raka'a miliyan 40, yayin da ASP na wayar salula ya ragu da kashi 3% zuwa yuan 1,058.
Tallan rangwameHar yanzu dai ana ci gaba da gudana, a baya-bayan nan shugaban rukunin Xiaomi Lu Weibing ya bayyana cewa, farashin sabon kamfanin na RedmiK60, wanda aka saki a watan Disamba, an rage shi zuwa yuan 2,999 kacal a kan 12+512GB, an rage farashin yuan 300, da kuma garantin farashi. masu amfani waɗanda suka riga sun sayi wannan sigar.
A zahiri, ta hanyar tallace-tallace a ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata, ƙirar wayar salula na Xiaomi na adadi mai yawa na masu rahusa da matsakaita ya ragu, amma har yanzu bai sami 'yanci daga haɗarin manyan kayayyaki ba.Kididdigar ta na "kayan da aka kera" ya kai yuan biliyan 27.3 a cikin rubu'i na uku na shekarar 2022, wanda ya yi kasa da na shekarar da ta gabata, amma ya kai kashi 65% na kudin shigar wayar salula a cikin kwata na uku.
Aikin mai kula da sansanin Android na duniya Samsung kuma ba shi da kwarin gwiwa.
Kudaden shiga na Samsung Electronics na kashi hudu cikin kwata na 2022 ya fadi da kashi 8 cikin dari a duk shekara kuma ribar aiki ta yi kasa fiye da yadda aka yi kiyasin a baya, a tsakanin sauran abubuwa, don rage siyar da wayoyin hannu a sashin MX (Mobile eExperience).Sashen MX na Samsung wani bangare ne na rukunin kasuwanci na DX (Na'urar eExperience), kuma kudaden shigar sa ya ragu da kashi 4% a duk shekara da kashi 10% a jere a cikin kwata na hudu na 2022 lokacin da aka hade da kudaden shiga daga kayan aikin gida da sauran kayayyaki.
Tabarbarewar wayar salula, kwakwalwan wayar salula da sauran kayan aikin lantarki sun yi yawa, yadda za a narkar da wadannan hannun jari, masu kera wayar sun yi aikin gida.Manyan masanan sun bayyana cewa, bukatu a kasuwar wayar salula maras karfi da matsakaicin zango ita ce mafi rauni idan aka kwatanta da babbar kasuwar wayar salula.A haƙiƙa, a cikin farashin yuan 1000-3000 na kasuwar wayar salula mara ƙarfi da tsakiyar kewayon, wayoyin hannu na cikin gida sun sake rufe mafi girman kewayon.
Mafi kai tsaye shine rangwame, yaƙin farashi, masana'antun wayar salula na yau da kullun suna cikin "6.18" , "Biyu 11" da sauran mahimman lokuta don haɓaka haɓaka.A watan Nuwamban da ya gabata, kasuwar wayar salula ta gabatar da bikin "wait party", sansanin Android, yuan 2000 na iya siyan daidaitaccen tsarin aiki na "na'urar guga", ￥ 1000 farashin ya fi barin mutane su tsinkayi ido.￥ 2000-3000 na Rage farashin sau da yawa ya fi bayyana.
Wayoyin salula na Apple a wajen sansanin Android, wadanda kuma ake zargi da shiga cikin tsarin rage farashin, a shekarar da ta gabata, wayoyin salula na Apple kawai sun fito kasa da wata guda, baya ga manyan samfuran talakawan sun fadi kasa da yuan 5200, daga ranar 5 ga Fabrairun wannan shekara. shekara, Apple kuma ba kasafai farashin rage, high-karshen model iPhone 14 Pro jerin online izini ba da izini Stores gabaɗaya rage farashin da kusan 700 yuan, kasuwar wayoyin hannu ta duniya tana kawo cikin duhu lokacin.
Masu kera a cikin ƙaddamar dada sabon inji sanyi, Har ila yau, na iya dogara ne akan la'akari da kaya, sun san "tsohuwar ruwan inabi a cikin sababbin kwalabe", mafi mahimmanci shine samfurin za a iya amfani da ƙananan daidaitawa.
Wasu ƙwararrun masu amfani sun ce a wannan shekara, muna ganin samfuran da yawa, har ma da manyan samfuran, suna ci gaba da amfani da tsoffin abubuwan da aka gyara, kuma dole ne a yi amfani da wasu abubuwan da ke da manyan kayayyaki a cikin manyan samfuran, samfuran reshe kawai ba za su iya narke kayan ba.
Tun daga rabin na biyu na 2021, sassan lantarki na wayar salula sun fara yin oda, bisa ga kididdigar Jiji Cat, yawancin samfura a cikin 2021 akan daidaita wasu shahararrun samfuran fashewar don daidaitawa, sannan aka jera su don siyarwa a cikin 2022.
Wasu daga cikin tsayayyen yanayin shekarun da suka gabata a cikin 2022 har yanzu ana iya gani sau da yawa, kamar Qualcomm Snapdragon 870, Snapdragon 778, martabar wayar salula CMOS IMX766, hadewar ƙaramin kyamarar 8 + 2 MP na al'ada, sabon kayan bazara gami da samfuran flagship. , ciki har da manyan samfuran kowane, mun tofa haɓakawa ba a bayyane yake ba, wasu ma sun ragu.
Na dogon lokaci, tsarin maye gurbin yarjejeniya na masana'antu ya kasance watanni 18, amma ta 2022, sake zagayowar sake zagayowar ga masu amfani da gida ya kai watanni 30 da 36.Wani shugaban masu samar da wayar salula ya ce daga kashi na uku da na hudu na shekarar 2021, rage farashin ya zama babban jigon masu kera wayar, kasuwar MediaTek da Qualcomm's processor chips sun fara rage farashin.
Rage farashin sabon injin yana ci gaba har zuwa farkon shekara ta 2023, wayoyi marasa ƙarfi, Farashin jima'i na Redmi bai zama abin dogaro ba, ƙari Ace2, na gaskiya GT Neo5 kulle 2000-3000 yuan farashin kashi, kula ba rauni fiye da K60 sanyi a lokaci guda farashin gaskiya.
Daga baya masana'antun yadda za a fuskanci koma bayan tattalin arziki a bukatar, watakila a wannan shekara ta "6.18" shopping festival za a iya gani - wanda farashin nutse babban, wanda ya sayar da talauci, kaya matsa lamba.
02 Sabbin sakamako sarkar samar da wayar salula.
Zamewa, Rauni
Abubuwan lantarki na wayar hannu, lissafin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya kusan 15-20%, na'urori masu sarrafawa da sauran kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna lissafin kusan 15-20%, allon nuni 10-20%, kyamarori 10-15%, RF / eriya 5-10%, ban da harsashi/ sassa, batura, FPC/PCB da sauransu.
A cikin 2022, sarkar samar da wayar salula gabaɗaya ta shafi matsananciyar koma bayan buƙatun mabukaci, kuma matakin ƙididdiga yana ci gaba da haskaka ja, har ma yana haifar da asarar aiki, gami da amma ba'a iyakance ga guntuwar wayar salula ba MediaTek da Qualcomm, Texas Instruments tare da mafi girman kewayon abokan ciniki, jagorar guntu mai gano sawun yatsa Huitian Technology, jagoran ruwan tabarau na duniya Sunwoo Optical, masu yin guntu RF na cikin gida Zaɓaɓɓen Micro da VTech, shugaban MLCC Murata, da ɗimbin masana'antun guntu ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, suna haifar da yanayin kasuwa mai ƙalubale a cikin 2023 .
Wadannan sune sabbin sakamakon kowane kamfani mai alaka da bangaren wayar salula.
Masu sarrafa wayar salula da sauran kwakwalwan kwamfuta
Kudaden shiga na MediaTek na Q4 2022 ya ragu da kashi 25% sama da shekara da kashi 26% a jere.Bangaren kasuwancin wayar hannu, wanda ya ba da gudummawar kashi 52% na kudaden shiga na MediaTek a cikin kwata na huɗu na 2022, ya ragu da kashi 25% a duk shekara da kashi 30% a jere saboda raguwar buƙatu a China, ƙarancin buƙatun mabukaci da gyare-gyaren ƙira na OEM ta wayar salula kamar yadda abokan ciniki ke da ƙarfi. daidaita abubuwan da suka kirkira, wani bangare MediaTek ya sake fasalin kudaden shiga na kwata na farko na 2023 zuwa dala biliyan 300- $ 3.4, saukar da 35- MediaTek ya rage kudaden shiga zuwa dala biliyan 300-3.4 don Q1 2023, saukar da 35-40% sama da shekara kuma 3-12% a jere, kuma ya jagoranci matakan ƙira don komawa ga al'ada a ƙarshen H1 2023.
Kudaden shiga na Qualcomm's CDMA Technologies (QCT) na kashi na farko na kasafin kudi na 2022/23, wanda ya hada da kwakwalwan kwamfuta, kayan aikin gaba na RF, kwakwalwan kwamfuta da na'urorin IoT, sun ki kashi 11 cikin dari na shekara-shekara, tare da kudaden shiga guntu na wayar hannu ya ragu da 18. kashi na shekara-shekara.Idan aka yi la’akari da yanayin tattalin arziki da buƙatu, kamfanin yana ƙara rage kashe kuɗi kuma a yanzu yana tsammanin haɓaka matakan ƙirƙira tashoshi a cikin masana'antar wayar hannu zai ci gaba har zuwa aƙalla rabin farkon 2023, tare da ƙarin raguwa a jigilar wayar hannu ta 3G, 4G da 5G mai yiwuwa a cikin 2023 idan aka kwatanta da 2023. zuwa 2022.
Huideng Technology, shugaban cibiyar tantance sawun yatsa, yana fatan samun ribar da za ta iya samu ga masu mallakar babban kamfani daga -900 miliyan yuan zuwa -600 miliyan na shekarar 2022, idan aka kwatanta da na shekarar da ta gabata, wanda zai haifar da asara. .Babban dalilin da ya sa ake samun sauyin aiyuka shi ne, galibin kayayyakin kamfanin sun dogara ne kan kasuwannin wayoyin komai da ruwanka, wanda yanayin kasa da kasa ya shafa, tattalin arzikin kasa da kuma annobar da ke ci gaba da haifar da koma baya ga kasuwa da bukatar abokan ciniki;A lokaci guda kuma, babban gasa na kamfani ya tsananta matsin farashin tallace-tallace, wanda ya haifar da raguwar 35% zuwa 45% a duk shekara a cikin kudaden shiga na aiki na kamfanin a cikin 2022. A cikin kasafin kudi na 2022, tanadar da lalacewar dukiya daban-daban shine. an kiyasta ya kai dala miliyan 702 zuwa dala miliyan 872.
guntuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar wayar salula
Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2022 kudaden shiga ya ragu da kashi 8%, ribar aiki ta ragu da kashi 69% na shekara-shekara.Kungiyar kasuwanci ta DS (Na'urar Solutions), wacce ke da alhakin gudanar da kasuwancin semiconductor da kasuwancin guntu, ta ba da rahoton raguwar 24% na kudaden shiga a cikin kwata na huɗu na 2022 idan aka kwatanta da daidai wannan lokacin a bara da raguwar 13% daga daidai wannan lokacin a bara. ;kudaden shigarta na cikakken shekara ta 2022 ya samu nasara biliyan 9,846 (kimanin dala biliyan 79.9), karuwa da kashi 3% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2021. Rugujewar kudaden shiga na wannan rukunin kasuwanci ya samo asali ne sakamakon shaye-shayen kaya na gefen abokin ciniki da kuma rage farashin guntuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.
Kudaden shiga cikin kashi hudu na 2022 na SK Hynix ya fadi da kashi 38 cikin dari a shekara, tare da asarar dala tiriliyan 3.52 (dala biliyan 2.881), idan aka kwatanta da ribar da ta samu dala tiriliyan 3.32 ($2.717 biliyan) a shekara daya da ta gabata, SK Hynix ta farko kwata-kwata. asarar tun kashi na uku na 2012 da mafi girma asara na kwata akan rikodin.SK Hynix ya kasance mai raɗaɗi game da buƙatun kasuwa a farkon kwata na 2023, yana tsammanin haɓakar jigilar DRAM na iya raguwa da sama da 10% kuma raguwar za ta ci gaba a farkon rabin shekara.
Kudaden shiga na Micron ya ragu da kashi 39 cikin 100 a jere da kuma kashi 47% na shekara-shekara a cikin kwata na farko na kasafin kudi na 2023. Idan aka yi la'akari da rashin daidaituwa tsakanin wadata da buƙatu da ke shiga cikin 2023, Micron yana tsammanin za a ƙalubalanci ribar masana'antu gaba ɗaya cikin shekara.Micron yana ɗaukar ƙwaƙƙwaran mataki don rage wadata da kashe kuɗi.Micron yana ɗaukar ƙwaƙƙwaran mataki don rage wadata da kashe kuɗi.
Nunin wayar salula
Katafaren nunin cikin gida na BOE 2022 na farkon kashi uku na kudin shiga da ya kai yuan biliyan 132.744, ya ragu da kashi 19.45% a duk shekara;Ribar da ake iya dangantawa da yuan biliyan 5.291, ya ragu da kashi 73.75% a duk shekara.Daga cikin su, kudaden shiga na kwata na uku shine RMB biliyan 41.134, ya ragu da kashi 26.79 cikin dari a shekara;Ribar da aka samu ga uwa ta kai RMB biliyan 1.305.2022 Daga watan Janairu zuwa Satumba, kamfanin ya yi tanadi don lalata kadarori daban-daban da suka kai RMB miliyan 7,482.22, kuma asarar da ta yi ya shafi jimillar ribar -RMB 2,957.17 miliyan.
Samsung SDC (Samsung Nuni) kudaden shiga na rukunin kasuwanci na kwata na huɗu na 2022 ya kasance dala tiriliyan 9.31 (kimanin dala biliyan 7.6), ƙasa da kashi 3% a shekara da 1% a jere;cikakken shekara 2022 kudaden shiga ya lashe tiriliyan 3.438 (kimanin dala biliyan 27.9), sama da 8% idan aka kwatanta da 2021. Samsung ya ce ba a shafi manyan bangarorin OLED na wayar salula ba da yawa, kudaden shiga ya kasance mai inganci.
Abubuwan ƙira na guntu sun sake fitowa jiya
Yaushe zai warke?
Masana'antar wayar salula ta sami ƙalubalen ƙira a baya.
A cikin 2014, tare da zuwan zamanin 4G, manyan ma'aikata guda uku don rage tallafin, "Kungiyar Cool Union" ta rushewa, kasuwancin tashar gida ya firgita "kayan kuɗi miliyan 200";rubu'in farko na sabuwar kambin kambi na shekarar 2020, an toshe dabaru, jigilar wayoyin salula na kasar Sin kasa da miliyan 50, mafi karanci a cikin rubu'i tara na karshe, tun daga lokacin da ba a katange tare da jawo amfani da ramuwar gayya, kashi na biyu na 2020 na jigilar sama da miliyan 100.
Har ila yau, ƙaddamar da ƙididdiga na ƙarshen shekara ya zama aiki na yau da kullum ga masu kera wayoyin hannu, kamar gagarumin raguwa a cikin sarkar Android don kawar da hanyoyin da ba a cika cikakken allo ba a ƙarshen 2017, da kuma raguwar rashin ƙirƙira a cikin Apple. model a karshen 2018.
A cikin mahallin lamarin Huawei da kuma rashin babban ruwa a cikin 2021, masana'antun wayar salula suna fuskantar gasa mai tsanani da kuma haɗarin ƙira don haɓaka tarawa.Janye kamfanin Huawei, wanda ya kai kashi 40% -50% na kasuwannin wayar salula na kasar, ya kuma sa 'yan wasan wayar su fara nuna kwarin gwiwa.Kuma 2022 hauhawar farashin kaya, halin da ake ciki a Rasha da Ukraine, annoba ta gida, masu amfani da wayar salula don maye gurbin yanayin kwantar da hankali, mutane da yawa sun zaɓi ci gaba da "mafi kyau".
A cikin watan Mayun 2022, kafofin watsa labaru sun bayyana koma bayan masana'antar wayar salula ta kasar Sin a matsayin "Tsarin rugujewa", tare da tuni masana'antar wayar salula ta mallaki wayoyin hannu miliyan 30, gami da sama da kayayyakin da aka kammala miliyan 20 da sama da kayayyaki miliyan 10 da aka kammala da manyan abubuwan da suka dace. a hannun jari.Strategy Analytics ya fitar da wani rahoto da ke nuna cewa gabaɗayan jigilar wayoyin salula na duniya na raka'a biliyan 1.2 a cikin 2022 sun kasance mafi ƙanƙanta tun 2013.
A kasuwannin cikin gida, kasuwar wayar salula ta kasar Sin za ta rika jigilar kayayyaki kusan raka'a miliyan 286 a shekarar 2022, wanda ya ragu da kashi 13.2 cikin dari a duk shekara.A cikin kwata na hudu, kasuwar wayar salula ta kasar Sin ta yi jigilar kusan raka'a miliyan 72.92, wanda ya ragu da kashi 12.6% a duk shekara.
Bukatun da ba za a iya tadawa ba zai matsa lamba ga masu kera na'ura mai kwakwalwa, na'urorin sarkar wayar salula na gida, musamman tsarin Android yana fuskantar matsin lamba mai yawa.
A shekarar 2022 Q3, kididdigar na'urorin kera sarkar sarkar wayar salula ta cikin gida ta Android ta ci gaba da karuwa a zobe iri daya, zuwa ga masu yin sarkar sarkar wayar salula na gida Weir, Josun Micro da Huideng Technology, alal misali, lokacin da kamfanonin uku suka canza kaya. sun kusa ko fiye da kwanaki 250, wanda ya zarce matsakaicin matakin na shekaru ukun da suka gabata.Matakan kayayyaki na karuwa kwata kwata tun daga 21Q1, kuma da kashi 22Q3 kwanakin da kamfanonin uku ke da su ya kai kwanaki 277, 284 da 247, wanda ya zarce matsakaicin matakin kwanaki 113 na masu kera sarkar wayar salula ta duniya.
Kayayyakin wayoyin salula na duniya kullum suna rubuta mafi munin sakamako a tarihi, matsakaicin kididdigar kwakwalwan wayoyin salula na ci gaba da kafa sabbin abubuwa, duk da cewa faduwar wayoyin salula abu ne da ba za a iya jayayya da shi ba, amma yanzu a cikin Babban koma bayan tattalin arziki a lokacin da kasan zagayowar guntu. lokacin dawo da semiconductor, aikin wayar hannu, har yanzu gwada amincewar kowa.
Lokacin aikawa: Fabrairu-24-2023