An rage farashin guntu, ba a siyar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta.A farkon rabin 2022, saboda sluggish bukatar a cikinmasu amfani da lantarkikasuwa, masana'antar guntu ta taɓa haifar da raguwar farashin farashi, kuma a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, makircin ya sake maimaita kansa.
Kwanan nan, labaran CCTV sun ba da rahoton cewa a matsayin ainihin abin da ke cikin tsarin sarrafa lantarki.STMicroelectronicsChips sun taɓa kasancewa ɗaya daga cikin samfuran guntu da aka fi nema a cikin 2021, kuma ƙimar kasuwa ta taɓa tashi zuwa kusan yuan 3,500, amma a cikin 2022, guntu ɗaya ya faɗi daga sama zuwa kusan yuan 600, raguwar har zuwa 80%.
Hakazalika, farashin wani guntu a bara ya bambanta da na bana sau goma.Farashin guntu yana da kwatankwacin naman alade, sama da ƙasa, mafi girman farashi da bambancin farashin al'ada na baya yana da ƙari sosai, an ruwaito cewa kafofin watsa labaru sun ba da rahoton yuan 600 na kwakwalwan kwamfuta na STMicroelectronics, farashin al'ada a cikin 2020 kaɗan ne kawai dubun yuan.
Da alama guntuwar hauka ya wuce, shin duhun girgijen da ya lullube da'irar fasahar a bara yana shirin tashi?A cewar Bloomberg, yawancin kamfanonin guntu sun yi imanin cewa wannan kasuwa mai zafi za ta sami babban sauyi na dogon lokaci a nan gaba, har ma wasu mutane suna da ra'ayin cewa masana'antar semiconductor za ta haifar da koma baya mafi muni cikin shekaru goma.
'Yan jin daɗi, 'yan baƙin ciki, ƙanƙara farashin guntu, ban da masana'antar shiru, Ina jin tsoron cewa akwai kasuwanni marasa adadi a cikin bukin bukin.
01Guntu ya sauka, amma ba gaba daya ba?
Yakin farashin guntu ba ya rabuwa da jajircewar amfani da na'urorin lantarki na duniya.
Daga rahoton kudi na TSMC na baya-bayan nan, za a iya gane cewa sana’ar wayar salula da ta taba tallafa wa rabin kasar, ba ita ce babbar hanyar samun kudaden shiga ba, kuma ana sa ran kason wannan kasuwancin zai ci gaba da raguwa.A cewar CINNO Research, jigilar kayayyaki ta wayar salula ta kasar Sin SoC a farkon rabin shekarar 2022 ya kai kusan miliyan 134, wanda ya ragu da kusan kashi 16.9% duk shekara.
Dangane da bangaren PC, a cewar kamfanin bincike na kasuwa Mercury Research, a cikin kwata na biyu na wannan shekara, jigilar kayan sarrafa kwamfutocin tebur sun faɗi zuwa mafi ƙanƙanci a cikin kusan shekaru 30, jimillar jigilar kayayyaki sun sami raguwa mafi girma a kowace shekara tun 1984. , Siyar da wayar salula ta Koriya ta Kudu ta ragu da kashi 29.2% a kowace shekara a watan Yuli, fitar da na'ura mai kwakwalwa da kayan taimako ya ragu da kashi 21.9%, kuma jigilar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ta haifar da raguwa tare da raguwar 13.5%.
Bukatu na sama yana raguwa, umarni na ƙasa suna ci gaba da raguwa, kuma farashin a zahiri yayi sanyi.
Duk da haka, ya kamata a lura cewa waɗannan kwakwalwan kwamfuta waɗanda suka rage farashin ba su taka rawar gani ba wajen haɓaka masana'antar semiconductor gaba ɗaya.Shin da gaske kwakwalwan kwamfuta sun faɗi cikin farashi?A karkashin labarai na "fashewa", har yanzu akwai masana'antun da suka sanar da karuwar farashin a kan yanayin, irin su Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, da dai sauransu. suna shirin haɓaka farashin wasu kayan aikin su na guntu.
Daukar Intel a matsayin misali, a cewar Nikkei, Intel ya sanar da abokan ciniki cewa zai kara farashin kayayyakin semiconductor a cikin rabin na biyu na 2022, kuma ana sa ran zai kara farashin kayayyaki iri-iri kamar sabar sabar da CPU na kwamfuta. na'urori masu sarrafawa da kwakwalwan kwamfuta na gefe, kuma haɓaka ya bambanta dangane da nau'in guntu, mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin lambobi ɗaya, kuma matsakaicin karuwa na iya kaiwa 10% zuwa 20%.
Shin farashin guntu ya tashi?Ana iya cewa farashin na'urorin na'urorin lantarki na mabukaci ya ragu kwatsam saboda raguwar buƙatu, amma buƙatar MCUs a wasu fannonin aikace-aikacen yana ci gaba da ƙarfi, kamar sarrafa motoci da masana'antu, wanda ya haifar da tsadar farashin. kwakwalwan kwamfuta masu alaƙa.Tun daga farkon jigilar wayoyin salula na zamani, makomar masana'antar guntu ta kasance mai ban sha'awa a matsayin mai siyar da hankali, amma a zahiri, ƙarancin guntu a wasu masana'antu bai ƙare ba.
Musamman kwakwalwan kwamfuta na kera motoci, 2022 na kasar Sin Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum data nuna cewa kayayyakin guntu na yanzu ba za su iya biyan matsakaicin kashi 31% na bukatun masana'antun kera motoci ba, Xpeng Motors'He Xiaopeng ya kuma ce, karancin guntu masana'antar kera motoci bai kare ba. , GAC a watan Yuni ya ba da bayanai cewa GAC ta fuskanci ƙarancin guntu har zuwa guda 33,000 a cikin kwata na biyu.
Sabuwar masana'antar makamashi tana tafiya cikin kwanciyar hankali, kuma ba za a iya yin la'akari da buƙatar guntu a nan gaba ba.An ba da rahoton cewa matsakaicin mota yana buƙatar amfani da kwakwalwan kwamfuta 500,sababbin motocin makamashiAn sanye su da ƙarin kwakwalwan kwamfuta, a bara sayar da motoci a duniya na kusan raka'a miliyan 81.05, wato, dukkan sassan masana'antar kera motoci na buƙatar guntu biliyan 40.5.
Bugu da kari, manyan kwakwalwan kwamfuta har yanzu suna kan bagadin kasuwa, a gefe guda, sarkar masana'anta don kwakwalwan kwamfuta tare da fasahar aiwatar da ci gaba ba ta taɓa dusashewa ba.A baya an ba da rahoton cewa guntuwar 3nm na TSMC za ta sami yawan samarwa a watan Satumba, kuma Apple zai zama abokin ciniki na farko da zai yi amfani da guntu na 3nm na TSMC.
An bayyana cewa Apple zai hada da sabon processor A17 a shekara mai zuwa, da kuma na'urar M3, wanda zai yi amfani da nanometer 3 na TSMC.A gefe guda kuma, akwai ƙarancin kayan aikin semiconductor masu girma, kuma fitowar 3nm da 2nm na ci gaba ba a ƙaddara su zama babba ba, kuma ana iya samun gibin wadata na 10% zuwa 20% a cikin 2024 ~ 2025.
Wannan ya sa ya zama ƙasa da yuwuwar farashin zai faɗi.Duk alamu sun gaya mana cewa kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna fadowa kuma masana'antar ba ta da sauƙi kamar yadda ake gani.
02 Shin guntuwar mabukaci ba su da ni'ima?
Wani bangare ya yi tsit, daya bangaren kuma ba shi da wadata.
Na'urorin lantarki na masu amfani sun shiga cikin mafi kyawun lokacin shekaru biyu na farko, kuma tare da raguwar amfani da lantarki, a ƙarshe sun sauka daga bagaden.A halin yanzu, yawancin kamfanonin guntu sun fara shagaltuwa wajen canza kasuwancin su, daga mabukaci zuwa filayen kera motoci da injiniyoyi.Kamfanin TSMC ya jera kasuwar kera motoci a matsayin wani muhimmin aiki a cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, kuma an ba da rahoton cewa, a bangaren kasa, harkokin hada-hadar motoci na 'yan wasan MCU na cikin gida irin su GigaDevice Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, da AMEC suma suna kara fitowa fili. .
Musamman, GigaDevice ya shiga matakin gwajin samfurin abokin ciniki tare da samfurin MCU na farko na kera motoci a cikin Maris, kuma ana tsammanin cimma yawan samarwa a wannan shekara;Ana amfani da Zhongying Electronics musamman don sashin kula da jiki na MCU, kuma ana sa ran dawowa a tsakiyar shekara;Semiconductor AMEC ya nuna aniyarsa na kera na'urorin kera motoci a cikin abin da zai sa a gaba, kuma IPO na shirin samar da yuan miliyan 729, wanda za a yi amfani da yuan miliyan 283 don gudanar da bincike da ayyukan ci gaba na kera motoci.
Bayan haka, ƙimar ƙirar ƙirar keɓaɓɓu na cikin gida da na'urori masu sarrafawa bai wuce 1% ba, ƙimar na'urori masu auna firikwensin ba su wuce 4% ba, kuma ƙimar ganowar ikon semiconductor, ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, da sadarwa shine 8%, 8%, kuma 3%, bi da bi.Sabbin abubuwan hawa makamashi na cikin gida suna da haɗari, kuma gabaɗayan ilimin halittu masu hankali gami da tuƙi mai cin gashin kansa zai cinye adadi mai yawa na semiconductor a mataki na gaba.
Kuma yaya zai kasance da wahala a ci gaba da tsayawa tare da guntun mabukaci?
A baya an ba da rahoton cewa Samsung ya taba dakatar da sayo dukkan sassan kasuwanci da suka hada da panel, wayoyin hannu da na'urorin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, har ma da yawa daga cikin kamfanonin kera ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar Koriya za su ɗauki matakin rage farashin da fiye da kashi 5% na tallace-tallace.Fasahar Nuvoton, wacce ta kware kan na'urorin lantarki, ita ma ta ga ribar ta ta haura fiye da sau 5.5 a bara, inda ta samu ribar NT $7.27 a kowacce kaso.Ayyukan ya zama daidai a cikin Afrilu da Mayu na wannan shekara, tare da samun faɗuwar kudaden shiga da 2.18% da 3.04% bi da bi a kowane wata.
Mutum ba zai iya yin bayanin komai ba, amma bayanan iska sun nuna cewa ya zuwa ranar 9 ga Mayu, kamfanoni 126 na semiconductor a duk faɗin duniya sun sanar da rahoton kuɗin su na kwata na farko na 2022, wanda 16 daga cikinsu sun sami raguwar riba ko shekara. ko da asara.Chips na masu amfani suna haɓaka faɗuwar su ba tare da jin daɗi ba, kuma motoci da sarrafa masana'antu sun zama wurin neman riba na gaba a cikin kasuwar guntu.
Amma da gaske yana da sauƙi kamar yadda ake gani?
Musamman ga wasu masana'antun na'ura na gida, ƙaura daga fannin na'urorin lantarki zuwa filin mota ya fi zafi kasuwa.Da farko, kwakwalwan kwamfuta na cikin gida yakamata su kasance a ƙasa, kuma filin mabukaci ya zama na farko, yana lissafin kashi 27%.Ko da idan aka dubi duniya, kasuwar cikin gida ita ma ita ce babbar kasuwar simin dakon kayayyaki, bayanai sun nuna cewa a shekarar 2021, cinikin dalar Amurka biliyan 29.62 ya kai dalar Amurka biliyan 29.6, wanda ya karu da kashi 58 cikin 100 a duk shekara, shi ne mafi girma a duniya. mafi girma kasuwar semiconductor, lissafin kashi 28.9% na jimlar tallace-tallace na semiconductor na duniya.
Na biyu, masana'antar guntu kanta tana da babban ribar riba a cikin wayoyi masu wayo da kuma filayen da ke da alaƙa da 5G.Misali, jigilar kayayyaki na TSMC ya kai kashi 70% na kasuwar MCU na kera motoci, amma guntun kera motoci kawai ke lissafin kashi 3.31% na kudaden shiga na shekarar 2020.By Q1 2022, TSMC's smartphone da HPC sassan za su lissafta 40% da 41% na net kudaden shiga bi da bi, yayin da IOT abin hawa DCE da sauran za su kawai lissafin 8%, 5%, 3% da 3% bi da bi.
Bukatar ta ragu, amma ribar tana nan, kuma matsalar mai yiwuwa ita ce babbar ciwon kai a kasuwar semiconductor.
03 Bayan haɓaka, masu amfani sun yi murna?
Lokacin da farashin chips ya girgiza, mafi farin ciki shine masu amfani, wayoyin hannu, motoci har ma da na'urorin gida masu wayo sun zama wurin cin abinci na carnival da ake yawan sa ran bayan an rage farashin chips, musamman wayoyin hannu.Ba da dadewa ba bayan faduwar farashin guntu, an yi ta ihu a dandalin sada zumunta na yanar gizo na sayen wayoyin hannu a rabin na biyu na wannan shekara.
Nan da nan, farashin sabon makamashi ya ragu, farashin kayan lantarki ya ragu, kuma farashin kayan aikin gida ya ragu… Muryoyin irin wannan suna zuwa suna tafiya.Duk da haka, babu wani tabbataccen yanayi na ɗan lokaci ko za a sami raguwar farashin daidai da sarkar samfur, amma magana ta gaskiya, wannan guguwar rage farashin guntu ba zai haifar da raguwar farashi mai girma a kasuwar mabukaci ba.
Da farko ku kalli filin wayar hannu mafi tasiri, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, masu kera wayar hannu suna ƙara farashi akai-akai, shiru mara ƙarfi, swagger mai tsayi, yuwuwar rage farashin na ɗan lokaci kaɗan ne.Bugu da kari, ribar da kamfanonin kera wayoyin hannu na cikin gida ba su yi yawa ba.A wajen taron Huawei Developers, mataimakin shugaban sashen kula da harkokin kasuwanci na kamfanin Huawei, Yang Haisong, ya bayyana cewa, ribar da kamfanonin kera wayoyin salula na kasar Sin ke samu, abin tausayi ne, kuma yawan kasuwannin wayoyin salula na cikin gida ya kai fiye da rabi, amma ribar kusan 10 ne kawai. %.
Har ila yau, guntu ya ragu, amma farashin sauran abubuwan da aka gyara ba su da kyau sosai, irin su na'urori masu auna firikwensin da fuska, samfurori masu tsayi suna ƙara zama na al'ada, masu sana'a na wayar hannu akan buƙatun sarkar samar da kayayyaki suna da yawa kuma suna da ƙarfi, shi An ba da rahoton cewa OPPO, Xiaomi sun taɓa keɓance na'urori masu auna firikwensin zuwa Sony da Samsung.
Ta haka ne abin farin ciki ga masu amfani da shi cewa farashin wayoyin hannu baya karuwa.
Dubi sabon makamashi, babban guntu wanda ya yanke farashin wannan lokacin asalinsa ba a fagen kera motoci ba ne, ba a ma maganar, hauhawar farashin sabon da'irar motar makamashi a farkon rabin shekara ba ma, kuma dalili a baya shi ba duk guntu matsala.Farashin manyan kayan yana tashi, ko nickel, karfe, aluminum gami da na'urorin lantarki masu inganci da mara kyau, farashin kawai yana ƙaruwa, farashin batura ya kasance mai girma, kuma dalilai daban-daban a bayyane ba za a iya danganta su ga guntu ba.
Tabbas, motar yin da'irar ba ƙaramin dawowar guntu ba ce, tunda a wannan shekara, kwakwalwan kwamfuta masu fitar da haske na LED da kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna da raguwar farashin 30% -40%, wanda babu shakka zai taka wani rawar buffer a cikin kudin mai mota na gaba.
Baya ga wayowin komai da ruwan, babban tasirin guntuwar mabukaci shine tabbas na'urorin gida masu wayo kamar na'urorin sanyaya iska da firiji, kuma buƙatun MCU na manyan na'urorin farar gida guda uku da gaske ba su ragu ba, daga miliyan 570 a cikin 2017 zuwa sama da 700. miliyan a cikin 2022, wanda MCU na kwandishan ya kai fiye da 60%.
Koyaya, kwakwalwan kwamfuta da aka yi amfani da su a cikin filin gida mai kaifin baki wasu ƙananan kwakwalwan kwamfuta ne tare da matakai na baya, waɗanda ke adawa da ci gaba da aiwatarwa kamar 3nm da 7nm, gabaɗaya sama da 28nm ko 45nm.Ka sani, waɗannan kwakwalwan kwamfuta ana amfani da su sosai saboda ƙarancin abun ciki na fasaha, kuma farashin naúrar ba shi da yawa.
Ga kamfanonin kayan aikin gida, ƙananan fasaha yana nufin za su iya samun wadatar kansu.A cikin 2017, an kafa sashin microelectronics na Green;A cikin 2018, Konka ya sanar da kafa sashen fasaha na semiconductors a hukumance;A cikin 2018, Midea ta ba da sanarwar shigarta cikin masana'antar guntu tare da kafa Meiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., kuma a cikin Janairu 2021, Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. an kafa shi, tare da sikelin samar da taro na shekara-shekara na kusan kwakwalwan MCU miliyan 10.
Bisa kididdigar da ba ta cika ba, yawancin kamfanonin kayan aikin gida na gargajiya irin su TCL, Konka, Skyworth, da Haier sun shimfida filin semiconductor, a wasu kalmomi, wannan filin ba ya ƙuntata ta kwakwalwan kwamfuta kwata-kwata.
Kasa, ko a'a kasa?Wannan raguwar farashin guntu ya fi kama da harbin ƙarya, masana'antun sama ba su jin daɗi na ɗan lokaci, balle masu amfani.
Lokacin aikawa: Dec-29-2022