A cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, kasuwar semiconductor ta sami lokacin haɓakar da ba a taɓa ganin irinta ba, amma daga rabin na biyu na wannan shekara, buƙatu ta juya zuwa yanayin raguwa kuma ta fuskanci lokaci na tsayawa.Ba wai kawai ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ba, har ma wafer foundries da semiconductor zane kamfanonin da aka buga da sanyi kalaman, da semiconductor kasuwa na iya "juya girma" a shekara mai zuwa.Dangane da haka, kamfanonin kera semiconductor sun fara rage saka hannun jari a wuraren aiki tare da tsaurara bel;Fara guje wa rikicin.
1. Global semiconductor tallace-tallace korau girma na 4.1% na gaba shekara
A wannan shekara, kasuwar semiconductor ta canza da sauri daga bugu zuwa fashe kuma tana tafiya cikin ingantaccen canji fiye da kowane lokaci.
Tun daga 2020, dakasuwar semiconductor, wanda ya sami wadata saboda katsewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki da wasu dalilai, ya shiga cikin matsanancin sanyi a rabin na biyu na wannan shekara.A cewar SIA, tallace-tallace na semiconductor na duniya ya kasance dala biliyan 47 a watan Satumba, ya ragu da 3% daga wannan watan a bara.Wannan shine raguwar tallace-tallace na farko cikin shekaru biyu da watanni takwas tun daga watan Janairun 2020.
Tare da wannan a matsayin mafari, ana sa ran cewa tallace-tallacen kasuwar semiconductor na duniya zai yi girma sosai a wannan shekara kuma ya koma ci gaba a shekara mai zuwa.A karshen watan Nuwamba na wannan shekara, WSTS ta sanar da cewa ana sa ran kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya za ta yi girma da kashi 4.4% idan aka kwatanta da bara, wanda ya kai dalar Amurka biliyan 580.1.Wannan ya bambanta sosai da karuwar 26.2% na bara na tallace-tallace na semiconductor.
Ana sa ran tallace-tallace na semiconductor na duniya zai kasance kusan dala biliyan 556.5 a shekara mai zuwa, ƙasa da kashi 4.1 bisa ɗari na wannan shekara.A cikin watan Agusta kadai, WSTS ya annabta cewa tallace-tallace na kasuwar semiconductor zai yi girma da 4.6% a shekara mai zuwa, amma ya koma hasashe mara kyau a cikin watanni 3.
Ragewar tallace-tallace na semiconductor ya faru ne saboda raguwar jigilar kayayyaki na gida, Talabijin, wayoyin hannu, kwamfutocin littafin rubutu, da sauran samfuran ƙarin, waɗanda sune babban ɓangaren buƙata.A lokaci guda, sabodahauhawar farashin kayayyaki a duniya, Sabuwar annoba ta kambi, yakin Rasha-Ukrainian, yawan riba yana karuwa da wasu dalilai, sha'awar masu amfani da siye yana raguwa, kuma kasuwannin masu amfani suna fuskantar wani lokaci na stagnation.
Musamman, tallace-tallace na masu sarrafa ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya sun faɗi mafi yawa.Tallace-tallacen ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ya ragu da kashi 12.6 cikin ɗari a bana daga bara zuwa dala biliyan 134.4, kuma ana sa ran zai ƙara raguwa da kusan kashi 17 cikin ɗari a shekara mai zuwa.
Micron Technology, wacce ke matsayi na uku a hannun jarin DARM, ta sanar a ranar 22 ga wata cewa a cikin kwata na farko (Satumba-Nuwamba 2022) sanarwar sakamakon, asarar aiki ta kai dalar Amurka miliyan 290.Kamfanin yayi hasashen hasarar ma fi girma a cikin kwata na biyu na kasafin kudi na 2023 har zuwa Fabrairu na shekara mai zuwa.
Sauran manyan masu ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya guda biyu, Samsung Electronics da SK Hannix, suna iya raguwa a cikin kwata na huɗu.Kwanan nan, masana'antun tsaro sun yi annabta cewa SK Hynix, wanda ke da babban dogaro ga ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, zai yi kasawa fiye da dala miliyan 800 a cikin kwata na huɗu na wannan shekara.
Yin la'akari da halin da ake ciki na kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, ainihin farashin kuma yana faɗuwa sosai.A cewar hukumar, tsayayyen farashin ciniki na DRAM a cikin kwata na uku ya ragu da kusan kashi 10% zuwa 15% idan aka kwatanta da kwata na baya.Sakamakon haka, tallace-tallacen DRAM na duniya ya faɗi zuwa dala miliyan 18,187 a cikin kwata na uku, ƙasa da 28.9% daga kashi biyun da suka gabata.Wannan shi ne koma baya mafi girma tun bayan rikicin tattalin arzikin duniya na 2008.
Hakanan an cika yawan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar NAND flash, tare da matsakaicin farashin siyarwa (ASP) a cikin kwata na uku ya ragu da 18.3% daga kwata na baya, kuma tallace-tallacen NAND na duniya a cikin kwata na uku na wannan shekara sun kasance $ 13,713.6 miliyan, ƙasa da 24.3% daga kwata na baya.
Kasuwar kafewar ita ma ta ƙare zamanin amfani da iya aiki 100%.Ya fadi zuwa fiye da 90% a cikin kwata uku da suka gabata kuma zuwa fiye da 80% bayan shigar da kwata na hudu.TSMC, babban giant a duniya, ba banda.Umarnin abokin ciniki na kamfanin a cikin kwata na hudu ya ragu da kashi 40 zuwa 50 daga farkon shekara.
An fahimci cewa kididdigar samfuran da aka saita kamar wayoyin hannu, TVs, tablets, da kuma litattafan kwamfyuta na PC ya karu, kuma jimillar kididdigar kamfanonin semiconductor a cikin kwata na uku ya karu da fiye da kashi 50% idan aka kwatanta da kwata na farko.
Wasu mutane a cikin masana'antar sun yi imanin cewa "har zuwa rabin na biyu na 2023, tare da zuwan lokacin kololuwar yanayi, ana sa ran za a inganta yanayin masana'antar semiconductor gaba ɗaya."
2. Rage zuba jari da samar da iya aiki zai warware daIC matsala matsala
Bayan raguwar buƙatun semiconductor da tarin kaya, manyan masu samar da na'urori sun fara tsauraran ayyuka ta hanyar rage samarwa da rage saka hannun jari a wurare.A cewar kamfanin nazarin kasuwa na baya IC Insights, saka hannun jari na kayan aikin semiconductor na duniya a shekara mai zuwa zai kasance ƙasa da kashi 19% na wannan shekara, wanda ya kai dala biliyan 146.6.
SK Hynix ya fada a cikin sanarwar sakamakon kashi na uku na watan da ya gabata cewa ya yanke shawarar rage yawan jarin da fiye da kashi 50% a shekara mai zuwa idan aka kwatanta da na bana.Micron ya sanar da cewa a shekara mai zuwa zai rage jarin jari fiye da 30% daga ainihin shirin kuma rage yawan ma'aikata da kashi 10%.Kioxia, wanda ke matsayi na uku a hannun NAND, ya kuma ce za a rage samar da wafer da kusan kashi 30% daga watan Oktoba na wannan shekarar.
Akasin haka, Samsung Electronics, wanda ke da kaso mafi girma na kasuwar ajiyar bayanai, ya ce, domin biyan bukatu na dogon lokaci, ba zai rage saka hannun jari na semiconductor ba, amma zai ci gaba kamar yadda aka tsara.Amma kwanan nan, idan aka yi la'akari da halin da ake ciki yanzu a cikin ƙirƙira masana'antar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya da farashi, Samsung Electronics na iya daidaita samarwa tun farkon kwata na farko na shekara mai zuwa.
Tsarin semiconductor da masana'antun masana'antu kuma za su rage saka hannun jari na kayan aiki.A ranar 27 ga wata, kamfanin Intel ya gabatar da wani shiri na rage kudaden gudanar da aiki da dalar Amurka biliyan 3 a shekara mai zuwa tare da rage kasafin gudanar da aiki da dalar Amurka biliyan 8 zuwa dalar Amurka biliyan 10 nan da shekarar 2025 a cikin sanarwar sakamakon kashi na uku.Zuba jarin jari a bana ya yi kasa da kashi 8 cikin dari idan aka kwatanta da shirin na yanzu.
TSMC ta ce a cikin sanarwar sakamakon kashi na uku a cikin watan Oktoba cewa, an tsara sikelin zuba jarurruka a wannan shekara zai zama dala biliyan 40-44 a farkon shekara, raguwar fiye da 10%.UMC ta kuma ba da sanarwar rage zuba jarin da aka yi niyyar kashewa daga dala biliyan 3.6 a bana.Sakamakon raguwar amfani da FAB kwanan nan a cikin masana'antar kamfen, raguwar saka hannun jari a shekara mai zuwa kamar babu makawa.
Hewlett-Packard da Dell, manyan kamfanonin kera kwamfutoci a duniya, suna sa ran buƙatun kwamfutoci masu zaman kansu za su ƙara raguwa a cikin 2023. Dell ya ba da rahoton raguwar kashi 6 cikin 100 na jimlar kuɗin shiga a cikin kwata na uku, gami da raguwar kashi 17 cikin ɗari a sashinsa, wanda ke siyar da kwamfutoci da kwamfutoci da kuma tebur ga mabukaci da abokan cinikin kasuwanci.
Babban Jami'in HP Enrique Lores ya ce ƙila kayan ƙirƙira na PC za su ci gaba da girma har zuwa kashi biyu masu zuwa."A yanzu, muna da kaya da yawa, musamman ga PCS masu amfani, kuma muna aiki don rage wannan kayan," in ji Lores.
Ƙarshe:Masu yin na'ura na kasa da kasa suna da ra'ayin mazan jiya a cikin hasashen kasuwancin su na 2023 kuma a shirye suke su aiwatar da matakan hana farashi.Duk da yake ana tsammanin buƙatun gabaɗaya za su sake farfadowa a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara mai zuwa, yawancin kamfanonin samar da kayayyaki ba su da tabbacin ainihin wurin farawa da girman murmurewa.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-09-2023