A cikin sake zagayowar ƙasa ta 2023, mahimman kalmomi kamar kora, yanke umarni, da rububin fatarar kuɗi suna gudana ta cikin masana'antar guntu mai hazo.
A cikin 2024, wanda ke cike da tunani, menene sabbin canje-canje, sabbin abubuwa da sabbin damammaki masana'antar semiconductor za ta samu?
1. Kasuwar za ta bunkasa da kashi 20%
A baya-bayan nan, sabon bincike na kamfanin samar da bayanai na kasa da kasa (IDC) ya nuna cewa, kudaden shiga na semiconductor na duniya a shekarar 2023 ya ragu da kashi 12.0% a duk shekara, inda ya kai dala biliyan 526.5, amma ya zarce da adadin da hukumar ta yi na dala biliyan 519 a watan Satumba.Ana sa ran zai karu da kashi 20.2% na shekara zuwa dala biliyan 633 a shekarar 2024, sama da hasashen da aka yi a baya na dala biliyan 626.
A cewar hasashen hukumar, hangen nesa na ci gaban semiconductor zai karu yayin da gyare-gyaren kaya na dogon lokaci a cikin manyan sassan kasuwa guda biyu, PC da wayowin komai da ruwan, da raguwar matakan kaya a ciki.motakuma ana sa ran masana'antu za su koma matakan al'ada a cikin rabin na biyu na 2024 yayin da wutar lantarki ke ci gaba da haifar da haɓaka abun ciki na semiconductor a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa.
Yana da kyau a lura cewa ɓangarorin kasuwa tare da haɓaka haɓaka ko haɓaka haɓakawa a cikin 2024 sune wayoyi, kwamfutoci na sirri, sabobin, motoci, da kasuwannin AI.
1.1 Wayar Waya
Bayan kusan shekaru uku na durkushewa, a ƙarshe kasuwar wayoyin komai da ruwanka ta fara ɗaukar nauyi daga kashi na uku na 2023.
Dangane da bayanan bincike na Counterpoint, bayan watanni 27 a jere na raguwar tallace-tallacen wayoyin hannu na duniya, adadin tallace-tallace na farko (wato, tallace-tallace) a cikin Oktoba 2023 ya karu da kashi 5% a duk shekara.
Canalys hasashe cikakken-shekara wayoyin jigilar kaya zai kai 1.13 biliyan raka'a a 2023, kuma ana sa ran girma 4% zuwa 1.17 biliyan raka'a ta 2024. The smartphone kasuwar ana sa ran isa 1.25 biliyan raka'a jigilar ta 2027, tare da fili shekara-shekara girma kudi ( 2023-2027) na 2.6%.
Sanyam Chaurasia, babban manazarci a Canalys, ya ce, "Sake dawo da wayoyin komai da ruwanka a cikin 2024 za ta kasance ta hanyar kasuwanni masu tasowa, inda wayoyin hannu suka kasance wani muhimmin bangare na haɗin gwiwa, nishaɗi da haɓakawa."Chaurasia ya ce daya daga cikin wayoyin komai da ruwanka guda uku da za a aika a shekarar 2024 za su fito ne daga yankin Asiya da tekun Pasifik, sama da daya cikin biyar a shekarar 2017. Sakamakon bukatu da ake samu a Indiya, Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya da Kudancin Asiya, yankin kuma zai kasance daya daga cikin mafi saurin girma. a 6 bisa dari a shekara.
Ya kamata a lura cewa sarkar masana'antar wayar hannu ta zamani ta balaga sosai, gasar hada-hadar hannayen jari tana da zafi sosai, kuma a sa'i daya kuma, sabbin fasahohin kimiyya da fasaha, inganta masana'antu, horar da kwararru da sauran fannoni na jan hankalin masana'antar wayar salula don haskaka zamantakewar ta. daraja.
1.2 Kwamfutocin Keɓaɓɓu
Dangane da sabon hasashen TrendForce Consulting, jigilar litattafan rubutu na duniya zai kai raka'a miliyan 167 a cikin 2023, ƙasa da kashi 10.2% duk shekara.Koyaya, yayin da matsin lamba ya sauƙaƙe, kasuwar duniya ana tsammanin za ta dawo cikin ingantaccen wadata da buƙatun buƙatu a cikin 2024, kuma ana tsammanin jigilar jigilar kayayyaki gabaɗaya na kasuwar littafin rubutu zai kai raka'a miliyan 172 a cikin 2024, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 3.2% .Babban haɓakar haɓaka ya fito ne daga buƙatun maye gurbin kasuwar kasuwanci ta ƙarshe, da faɗaɗa Chromebooks da kwamfyutocin e-wasanni.
TrendForce ya kuma ambaci yanayin ci gaban AI PC a cikin rahoton.Hukumar ta yi imanin cewa saboda tsadar haɓaka software da kayan aikin da ke da alaƙa da AI PC, haɓakawar farko za ta mai da hankali kan manyan masu amfani da kasuwanci da masu ƙirƙirar abun ciki.Fitowar AI PCS ba lallai ba ne ta ƙara ƙarin buƙatun siyan PC, mafi yawansu a zahiri za su canza zuwa na'urorin AI PC tare da tsarin maye gurbin kasuwanci a cikin 2024.
Ga bangaren mabukaci, na'urar PC na yanzu na iya samar da aikace-aikacen girgije AI don biyan bukatun rayuwar yau da kullun, nishaɗi, idan babu aikace-aikacen kisa na AI a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, gabatar da ma'anar haɓaka ƙwarewar AI, zai zama da wahala. da sauri ƙara shaharar mabukaci AI PC.Koyaya, a cikin dogon lokaci, bayan aikace-aikacen yuwuwar ƙarin kayan aikin AI iri-iri ana haɓaka a nan gaba, kuma an saukar da ƙimar farashin, ana iya tsammanin ƙimar shigar da AI PCS mai amfani.
1.3 Sabar da Cibiyoyin Bayanai
Dangane da ƙididdigar Trendforce, sabar AI (ciki har da GPU,Farashin FPGA, ASIC, da dai sauransu) za su aika fiye da raka'a miliyan 1.2 a cikin 2023, tare da karuwa na shekara-shekara na 37.7%, lissafin kashi 9% na jigilar kayayyaki gabaɗaya, kuma zai girma fiye da 38% a cikin 2024, kuma sabobin AI za su lissafta. fiye da 12%.
Tare da aikace-aikace irin su chatbots da basirar wucin gadi na wucin gadi, manyan masu samar da mafita na girgije sun kara zuba jari a cikin basirar wucin gadi, suna fitar da bukatar sabar AI.
Daga 2023 zuwa 2024, buƙatun sabobin AI galibi ana haifar da su ta hanyar saka hannun jari na masu samar da mafita ga girgije, kuma bayan 2024, za a faɗaɗa shi zuwa ƙarin filayen aikace-aikacen inda kamfanoni ke saka hannun jari a cikin ƙwararrun samfuran AI da haɓaka sabis na software, suna haifar da haɓakar haɓakar haɓakawa. gefen AI sabobin sanye take da ƙananan - da matsakaicin oda Gpus.Ana tsammanin matsakaicin ƙimar girma na shekara-shekara na jigilar sabar sabar AI zai kasance sama da 20% daga 2023 zuwa 2026.
1.4 Sabbin motocin makamashi
Tare da ci gaba da ci gaba na sabon yanayin zamani na zamani guda huɗu, buƙatar kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin masana'antar kera ke ƙaruwa.
Daga ainihin tsarin sarrafa wutar lantarki zuwa tsarin taimakon direba na ci gaba (ADAS), fasahar mara direba da tsarin nishaɗin mota, akwai babban dogaro ga kwakwalwan kwamfuta.Bisa kididdigar da kungiyar masu kera motoci ta kasar Sin ta bayar, an ce, adadin guntuwar motocin da ake bukata na motocin man fetur na gargajiya sun kai 600-700, adadin guntuwar motocin da ake bukata don motocin lantarki za su karu zuwa 1600 / abin hawa, da kuma bukatar guntu don amfanin motocin. Ana sa ran ƙarin manyan motoci masu hankali za su ƙaru zuwa 3000 / abin hawa.
Bayanai masu dacewa sun nuna cewa a shekarar 2022, girman kasuwar hada-hadar kera motoci ta duniya ya kai yuan biliyan 310.A kasuwannin kasar Sin, inda sabon yanayin makamashi ya fi karfi, cinikin motocin kasar Sin ya kai yuan tiriliyan 4.58, kuma kasuwar hada-hadar kera motoci ta kasar Sin ta kai yuan biliyan 121.9.Ana sa ran jimillar siyar da motoci ta kasar Sin za ta kai raka'a miliyan 31 a shekarar 2024, wanda ya karu da kashi 3% daga shekarar da ta gabata, a cewar CAAM.Daga cikin su, siyar da motocin fasinja kusan raka'a miliyan 26.8 ne, karuwar kashi 3.1 cikin dari.Siyar da sabbin motocin makamashi zai kai kusan raka'a miliyan 11.5, karuwar kashi 20% a duk shekara.
Bugu da ƙari, ƙimar shigar da hankali na sabbin motocin makamashi kuma yana ƙaruwa.A cikin ra'ayin samfur na 2024, ikon hankali zai zama muhimmin jagora wanda yawancin sabbin samfuran suka jaddada.
Wannan kuma yana nufin cewa buƙatar kwakwalwan kwamfuta a kasuwar kera motoci a shekara mai zuwa har yanzu yana da girma.
2. Hanyoyin fasaha na masana'antu
2.1AI Chip
AI ya kasance a ko'ina cikin 2023, kuma zai kasance muhimmiyar kalma a cikin 2024.
Kasuwar kwakwalwan kwamfuta da ake amfani da su don aiwatar da aikin haƙƙin ɗan adam (AI) yana haɓaka sama da kashi 20% a kowace shekara.Girman kasuwar guntu na AI zai kai dala biliyan 53.4 a cikin 2023, haɓakar 20.9% akan 2022, kuma zai haɓaka 25.6% a 2024 don kaiwa dala biliyan 67.1.Nan da 2027, ana sa ran kudaden shiga guntu na AI zai ninka girman kasuwar 2023, ya kai dala biliyan 119.4.
Manazarta na Gartner sun yi nuni da cewa nan gaba taro na kwakwalwan AI na al'ada zai maye gurbin tsarin gine-ginen guntu na yanzu (Gpus mai hankali) don ɗaukar nau'ikan ayyukan AI iri-iri, musamman waɗanda suka dogara da fasahar AI ta haɓaka.
2.2 2.5/3D Advanced Packaging Market
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, tare da haɓakar tsarin kera guntu, ci gaban ci gaban "Dokar Moore" ya ragu, wanda ya haifar da haɓakar haɓakar ƙimar ci gaban guntu.Yayin da Dokar Moore ta ragu, buƙatun ƙididdiga ya ƙaru.Tare da saurin haɓaka filayen da ke tasowa kamar lissafin girgije, manyan bayanai, hankali na wucin gadi, da tuƙi mai cin gashin kai, ingantattun buƙatun na kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna ƙaruwa kuma.
Ƙarƙashin ƙalubalen da yawa da halaye, masana'antar semiconductor ta fara gano sabuwar hanyar ci gaba.Daga cikin su, marufi na ci gaba ya zama hanya mai mahimmanci, wanda ke taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen inganta haɗin gwiwar guntu, rage nisa guntu, saurin haɗin wutar lantarki tsakanin kwakwalwan kwamfuta, da inganta aikin.
2.5D kanta wani girma ne wanda babu shi a cikin haƙiƙanin duniya, saboda haɗin haɗin gwiwarsa ya wuce 2D, amma ba zai iya kaiwa ga haɗaɗɗen 3D ba, don haka ana kiransa 2.5D.A cikin fage na ci-gaba marufi, 2.5D yana nufin haɗuwa da tsaka-tsakin tsaka-tsakin, wanda a halin yanzu an yi shi da kayan silicon, yana cin gajiyar tsarin da ya balaga da halayen haɗin kai mai girma.
Fasahar fakitin 3D da 2.5D ya bambanta da haɗin kai mai girma ta hanyar tsaka-tsakin tsaka-tsaki, 3D yana nufin cewa ba a buƙatar tsaka-tsakin tsaka-tsaki, kuma guntu yana haɗa kai tsaye ta hanyar TSV (ta hanyar fasahar siliki).
Kasuwar tattara bayanai ta kasa da kasa IDC tana hasashen cewa ana sa ran kasuwar marufi na 2.5/3D za ta kai adadin girma na shekara-shekara (CAGR) na 22% daga 2023 zuwa 2028, wanda yanki ne mai matukar damuwa a kasuwar gwajin marufi a nan gaba.
2.3 HBM
Guntuwar H100, tsirara H100 ta mamaye babban matsayi, akwai tarin HBM guda uku a kowane gefe, kuma wurin ƙara HBM shida daidai yake da H100 tsirara.Waɗannan kwakwalwan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya guda shida na ɗaya daga cikin “masu laifi” na ƙarancin wadatar H100.
HBM yana ɗaukar wani ɓangare na aikin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya a cikin GPU.Ba kamar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar DDR na al'ada ba, HBM da gaske yana ɗaukar ƙwaƙwalwar DRAM da yawa a cikin madaidaiciyar hanya, wanda ba kawai yana ƙara ƙarfin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ba, har ma yana sarrafa ƙarfin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya da yankin guntu da kyau, yana rage sararin da ke cikin kunshin.Bugu da kari, HBM yana samun mafi girman bandwidth bisa tushen ƙwaƙwalwar DDR na gargajiya ta hanyar haɓaka adadin fil don isa bas ɗin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya mai faɗin 1024 rago a kowane tari na HBM.
Horon AI yana da manyan buƙatu don neman hanyar samar da bayanai da lattin watsa bayanai, don haka HBM shima yana cikin buƙatu sosai.
A cikin 2020, mafita na ultra-bandwidth wanda ke wakilta ta hanyar ƙwaƙwalwar bandwidth mai girma (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3) sun fara fitowa a hankali.Bayan shigar da 2023, hauka fadada kasuwar bayanan sirri na wucin gadi wanda ChatGPT ke wakilta ya haɓaka buƙatun sabobin AI cikin sauri, amma kuma ya haifar da haɓaka tallace-tallacen samfuran manyan kayayyaki kamar HBM3.
Binciken Omdia ya nuna cewa daga shekarar 2023 zuwa 2027, ana sa ran karuwar karuwar kasuwancin HBM na shekara-shekara zai haura da kashi 52%, kuma ana sa ran rabon sa na kudaden shiga na kasuwar DRAM zai karu daga 10% a shekarar 2023 zuwa kusan 20% a shekarar 2027. Haka kuma, farashin HBM3 ya kai kusan sau biyar zuwa shida fiye da daidaitattun kwakwalwan DRAM.
2.4 Sadarwar Tauraron Dan Adam
Ga masu amfani na yau da kullun, wannan aikin na zaɓi ne, amma ga mutanen da ke son matsananciyar wasanni, ko aiki a cikin matsanancin yanayi kamar hamada, wannan fasaha za ta kasance mai amfani sosai, har ma da "ceton rai".Sadarwar tauraron dan adam na zama filin yaƙi na gaba da masana'antun wayar hannu ke kaiwa hari.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-02-2024